The Los Angeles Times noted an interesting trend in political demographics:
In this month's election, President Bush carried 97 of the nation's 100 fastest-growing counties, most of them "exurban" communities that are rapidly transforming farmland into subdivisions and shopping malls on the periphery of major metropolitan areas...
These growing areas, filled largely with younger families fleeing urban centers in search of affordable homes, are providing the GOP a foothold in blue Democratic-leaning states and solidifying the party's control over red Republican-leaning states.
Based on virtually complete totals for the 100 counties, Bush took 70% or more of the vote in 40 of them, and 60% or more in 70 of them. In all, Bush won 63% of the votes cast in these 100 counties.
Many agree that in these high-growth communities, as in much of the South, identification with the GOP has become a kind of cultural and social statement that also carries along voters who might be more open to Democrats in a less conservative environment.
"It's possible that the nature of these places changes people," said Mellman, the Kerry pollster. "If you are in, say, Montgomery County [Maryland], you are talking to other Democrats, your friends and family. Then all of a sudden you move to Loudon County, Va., and your social networks are dominated by Republicans."
Interesting term: exurban.
I like the quote about the nature of these communities changing people. Is it not possible that when you move to San Francisco, New York City, Boston, etc. (or a college campus?) that it might change you as well? Or is it perceived that if you join an "exurban" community you have a "Stepford Wives" experience where your brain is reprogrammed?
Still, 97 out of 100. That's impressive... Perhaps that's why you used to hear the likes of Al Gore complaining about 'urban sprawl'. Perhaps his concern wasn't about saving the environment but more about saving his voting base...
There's also a mention that gives some legitimacy to what some call "the Roe effect". The Roe effect considers that being pro-choice is to some extent like being a Shaker where you only maintain your population base through converts to your mindset. The same LA Times article says of those growing counties, "'The fastest-growing segment of our population is 2 and under,' Teri Morgan, head of the GOP in exurban Delaware County, Ohio, tells the paper."
Phillip Longman of the New America Foundation points out that the fertility rate in the Kerry states is 12% lower than in the Bush states. Vermont, the home of Howard Dean and perhaps the most left-wing state in the country, produces an annual average of 49 children for every 1,000 women of child-bearing age; in Utah, where 71% of the population voted for Mr Bush, the figure is 91. In deep-blue cities such as San Francisco and Seattle you find more dogs than children.