June 02, 2005

Shifting Demographics

Posted by Scott at 06:23 AM

This is a case of my re-discovery of an old news item. One of the sources is this Washington Post story by Phillip Longman.

What's the difference between the protesters outside the Republican convention and the delegates inside? There are many, of course, but one will ultimately skew American politics and the culture wars in the Republicans' favor, regardless of who has God or reason on her side. It's the divide between who is having children and who isn't.

Other highlights:

  • 47% of people who attend church weekly say that their ideal family size is three or more children.
  • Only 27% of those who seldom attend Church want as many children.
  • Of the top 10 most fertile states, only one did not vote Republican (Bush) in the 2000 presidential election.
  • Of the 17 states that have children at population replacement levels, only two did not vote for Bush.
  • The least fertile states voted overwhelmingly for Al Gore.
  • Women living in "Gore states" on average have 12% fewer babies than women living in Bush states.

And that article was written before the re-election of Bush over Kerry. I seem to recall that the demographics were similar or had shifted over more so in the 2004 election.

This also brings to mind the fact that strong support for abortion (a major DNC platform issue) also tends to correlate strongly with low fertility rates.

It reminds me of a joke that came up after Michelle and I toured the Canterbury Shaker Village back in the summer of 1994: “Celibacy is not hereditary.” In yet another case of irony, many of our best priests are themselves children of large families.

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